Market Stats

Amazon To Grab 2nd Place in Tablet Market

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IHS iSuppli says the Amazon Kindle is "already shaking up the market"-- predicting the Amazon tablet will beat the competition to take 2nd place in the global Q4 2011 tablet market.

The iPad, of course, will remain firmly entrenched in 1st place.

tablet market 2011

The analyst estimates Amazon will ship 3.9M Kindle Fire tablets in Q4 2011, taking over 13.8% of global tablet shipments. The total exceeds Samsung (1.8M units with 4.8% share) and is only 2nd to Apple (18.6M units with 65.6% share).

The Kindle Fire totals also contribute to a 7.7% increase in iSuppli 2011 tablet shipment estimates-- the analyst now predicts 2011 tablet shipments will reach 64.7M (up from August 2011 forecasts of 60M), with Y-o-Y growth reaching 273%.

The analyst also expects shipments will reach 287.2M by 2015.

Ultimately the ace up Amazon's retail sleeve is "rock bottom" pricing-- at $199, the Kindle Fire costs less than it the $201.70 iSuppli estimates the tablet costs to make. According to the analyst, Amazon plans to use the Kindle Fire to boost physical good sales, allowing the company to afford making a loss on hardware-- something the rest of the Android-based competition cannot.

After all Amazon offers Kindle Fire customers free one-month membership to Amazon Prime, with free movie and TV show access, the Kindle ebook lending library and (crucially) free 2-day shipping on physical goods.

Will Apple strike back at the Amazon attack? Some analysts speculate Apple will launch a lower-cost iPad version-- but more realistically, Apple could simply reduce iPad 2 prices with the inevitable iPad 3 launch, just as it did with the iPhone 4 launch last year.

Go Red-Hot Kindle Fire Blazes its Way to Second Place in Tablet Market (IHS iSuppli)

Blackberry No Longer Device of Business Choice

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Once the mobile device of choice for global enterprise, the Blackberry appears to be losing market share in 2011-- at least according to the latest Mobile Workforce report from mobile services seller iPass. 

iphone blackberryThe smartphone enterprise employees prefer? The iPhone, with 45% market share, up from 31.1% in 2010. In comparison, the Blackberry has just 32.2% share (down from 34.5% in 2010). 

Android is also slowly gaining market share, with 21.3% share for 2011 (up from just 11.3% in 2010).  

Tablet ownership is also on the rise among mobile employees-- from 33% in Q2 2011 to 44% in Q4 2011. 

The survey involves mobile device (smartphones, tablets and laptops) using employees from 1100 global companies. According to iPass, more companies are relaxing their mobile device policies as more employees take their smartphones and tablets to the office.

Whereas around 66% of companies provisioned smartphones to employees in 2010, that percentage in 2011 is down to 58%, with 42% of employees having individually liable smartphones. 

What do employees use their mobile devices for? The unkind would say either Angry Birds or Facebook ("the new smoke break" according to iPass), but the survey shows mobile devices acutally help boost productivity, with only an average of 28 minutes being "wasted" daily on distractions of the social networking variety.

iPass concludes IT departments will find their role rapidly changing post-2012, shifting focus on providing a backbone (negotiating rates, ensuring access exits and removing barriers) to the rising "mobilocracy" of mobile employees. 

Go iPass Global Mobile Workforce Report

Gartner: Nokia Leads Q3 Mobile Market

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Global Q3 2011 mobile device sales total 440.5M units according to Gartner, growing by 5.6% Y-o-Y-- despite the W. European market showing weak performance (as expected due to the current economic situation). 

Making up for the European weakness are MEA territories, where emerging markets demand low-cost and dual-SIM handsets. 

Gartner says Q3 2011 sales into the channel total 460M units, due to device shipments late in the quarter (in preparation for the holiday season) causing inventory build-up in the channel-- build-up Gartner expects will be clear by Q1 2012.

Mobile Market Q3

Smartphone demand is also stalling in W. Europe, as consumers hold off upgrades in order to either wait for holiday season promotions on high-end models or new iPhone models (and the price cuts older iPhone models receive afterwards). 

Global Q3 2011 smartphone sales total 115M units, with 42% Y-o-Y growth-- and a -7% Q-o-Q decline. Smartphones account for 26% of all Q3 mobile device sales, a negligible increase from 25% in Q2 2011.

Nokia remains the WW mobile device leader, with 23.9% of global sales (down from 28.2% in Q3 2010). The company shows good performance in emerging markets (thanks to dual-SIM feature phones) and should improve further in Q4 through the push on the new Lumia devices, even if Gartner predicts Nokia won't see a true turnaround until H2 2012.

Samsung leads in WW smartphone sales, with smartphone sales to end users reaching 24M units in Q3 2011-- ahead of Nokia in W. Europe. 

Apple iPhone sales are down by nearly 3M units from Q2 2011, reaching 17M (a 21% Y-o-Y increase) due to the iPhone 4S announcement. 

When it comes to operating systems, Android leads with 52.5% of Q3 2011 smartphone sales (totalling 60M units), benefiting from "more mass-market offerings, a weaker competitive environment and the lack of exciting new products on alternative operating systems" according to Gartner. 

Go Gartner Q3 2011 Mobile Device Market Tracker

Is the iPad losing Momentum?

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Will the Apple iPad colossus receive a beating from the hungry low-cost competition this holiday season? Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope thinks so, writing "...we believe it is prudent to assume the iPad is facing some near-term demand challenges."

Apple LosingThe reasoning comes via Hon Hai forecasts predicting "more limited upside to iPad units" by reducing Q4 2011 forecasts from 15.4M units to 11.6M due to "weak demand."

Pricing is the obvious reason for such "demand challenges", and Shope believes the iPad is long "overdue" a price cut. And that's before one even mentions heavyweight competition labelled "Amazon Kindle Fire."

The Apple disciples might insist the iPad has a superior app ecosystem or a bigger screen, but ultimately one main factor drives purchase choices in these troubled times-- tightening budgets.

A Kindle Fire costs $199, while the cheapest iPad costs $499. Barnes & Noble offers a Nook tablet at a price similar to the Fire's. You don't need to be a Goldman Sachs analyst to do the math. Hell, you don't even need an abacus.

No one gets between a lean, hungry dog and his dinner, especially not a greedy one.

Of course, Apple could re-energise iPad demand by launching Siri on the device or simply slashing prices... and profit margins.

It's good to know the tablet wars will continue waging on.

Go Goldman: Demand for the iPad is Fading (Businessinsider.com)

And the Top Q3 2011 Smartphone Vendor is...

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Samsung is the top WW smartphone vendor for Q3 2011 according to Strategy Analytics, beating Apple from a units-shipped standpoint and claiming 23.8% market share. 

iPhone GalaxyGlobal smartphone shipments are on the rise in general-- reaching 117M units and growing by 44.4% Y-o-Y (slower growth compared to Q3 2010, when the market saw 86.5% Y-o-Y growth).

Samsung shipments total 27.8M units in Q3 2011, while Apple ships 17.1M units and slips in market share (from 17.4% in Q3 2010 to 14.6%) and growth (21% Y-o-Y, the lowest in 2 years according to Strategy Analytics).

The analyst attributes the Samsung growth to "a blend of elegant hardware designs, popular Android services, memorable sub-brands and extensive global distribution."

Nokia comes in 3rd place, with 14.4% market share (down from 32.7% a year earlier) and shipments reaching 16.8M units. Strategy Analytics says the newly announced Lumia portfolio should help raise the company's profile while driving "at least an L-shaped recovery in its global smartphone market share over the next few months."

Go Strategy Analytics