Market Stats

NPD: Tablet Shipments in First Decline

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According to NPD DisplaySearch tablet shipments are down for the first time in Q1 2014, leading to the analyst's reduction of its 2014 shipment forecast to 285 million units with a growth rate of just 14%.

The analyst continues annual growth will continue falling in the future, and will slow down to single digits by 2017.

Dipslay tablets

Tablet shipments for Q1 2014 total 56m units, down from 59m in Q4 2013, with many vendors reporting "weak" shipments due to delayed product launches. On the other hand notebook PC shipments are "better than expected," if due to the commercial refresh cycle and Windows XP migration.

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Gartner: Devices to Reach 2.4 Billion in 2014

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According to Gartner combined PC, tablet, ultramobile and mobile phone shipments will reach 2.4 billion in 2014, a 4.2% increase over 2013 with PC showing a "relative" revival as tablet shipments slow down.

"2014 will be marked by a relative revival of the global PC market," the analyst says. The PC market (covering desktops, notebooks and ultramobiles) saw 2013 declines of -9.5% , but will recover somewhat to shrink by -2.9%  in 2014.

Gartner devices forecast

"Business upgrades from Windows XP and the general business replacement cycle will lessen the downward trend, especially in W. Europe," Gartner continues. "This year, we anticipate nearly 60 million professional PC replacements in mature markets."

On the other hand tablets are to see "relative" slowdown in 2014, with shipments growing by 23.9% to 256m units as lower price points, not superior functionality, drive the next wave of adoption.

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Phablets to Take Over Mobile

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The salad days of the 3.5-inch smartphone are over BI Intelligence says-- phablets (aka smartphones with a 5-7-inch display) are taking over as the market trends towards larger quasi-tablet handsets.

According to the analyst global phablet shipments are to hit 1.5 billion in 2019 with a CAGR of 27% for the 2014-2019 period, nearly double the 15% CAGR predicted for regular smartphones over the same period. Phablets should make 59% of the 2019 smartphone market, up from 35% in 2014.

BI Phablets

BI Intelligence adds phablets are already cannibalising global tablet sales-- and as tablet demand declines, phablet shipments should total three times as much as tablets by 2019.

How come oversized smartphones are so popular? One reason is larger displays allow for sustained on-the-go engagement on social networks and apps of the Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat variety. According to the analyst over 50% of phablet activity is tied to social networks.

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ABI: Tablets Reach "Tipping Point" in 2014

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According to ABI Research branded OEM tablet shipments will exceed 200 million with sales reaching $85 billion in 2014, even as global tablets decline by -30% during Q1 2014.

Tablets The year will also be something of a "watershed" for the tablet installed base, as active Android devices should surpass iOS for the first time.

"We have yet to reach the top of the tablet market and with many world regions just now starting to adopt, the best is yet to come.” the analyst says. "Intel aims to make a large splash during 2014 with a projected 40 million devices powered by its processors… [A] significant portion will come from smaller manufacturers in China and Taiwan developing next-generation Android tablets during H2 2014."

The analyst predicts 35% of 2014 shipments will go to China and India, with Chinese tablets for Chinese customers serving as a further influence in the white box (non-branded) tablet segment.

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IDC: Tablet Sales to Slow Down Further

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According to IDC the tablet and 2-in-1 market faces "additional" challenges during 2014 as the analyst lowers its annual shipment forecast from 260.9 million units to 245.4 million.

The revised forecast represents 12.1% growth, a notable decline from the 51.8% growth of 2013.

IDC 2014 tablet forecast

"Two major issues are causing the tablet market to slow down. First, consumers are keeping their tablets, especially higher-cost models from major vendors, far longer than originally anticipated. And when they do buy a new one they are often passing their existing tablet off to another member of the family," IDC remarks. "Second, the rise of phablets-– smartphones with 5.5-inch and larger screens-– are causing many people to second-guess tablet purchases as the larger screens on these phones are often adequate for tasks once reserved for tablets."

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