According to IDC the 2014 global tablet market sees "massive deceleration" with growth slowing down to 7.2% (from 52.5% in 2013) as tablet lifecycles stretch further, becoming more like those of PCs than smartphones.
The analyst also says 2014 is the year where the iPad sees its first full year of shipment decline, making a reflection of the market as a whole.
"The tablet market continues to be impacted by a few major trends happening in relevant markets," IDC remarks. "In the early stages of the tablet market, device lifecycles were expected to resemble those of smartphones, with replacement occurring every 2-3 years. What has played out instead is that many tablet owners are holding onto their devices for more than 3 years and in some instances more than 4 years. We believe the two major drivers for longer than expected tablet lifecycles are legacy software support for older products, especially within iOS, and the increased use of smartphones for a variety of computing tasks."
Apparently making "significant advancements" are hybrid/2-in-1 devices-- prices are down, devices are thinner and more models are available. However the category is hampered by Windows 8 being its main OS of choice, meaning it makes just 4% of 2014 shipments. Will consumer reaction remain the same once Windows 10 hits the market? One cannot really predict, although IDC predicts Windows will win at least some of the market in the near future, estimating it will climb from 4.6% OS share in 2014 to 11.4% in 2018.
As for the rest of the OS market, Android remains dominant with 67.7% 2014 market share, although IDC predicts at least some near future declines, with 2018 share dropping to 64%. The same goes for Apple, with iOS tablet share forecast to fall from 27.5% in 2014 to 24.5% in 2018 as the CAGR for the forecast period amounts to -1.1%.
Then again, things can change. After all, one has to consider Google's plans for the market (vis-a-vis both Android and Chrome OS), Apple's supposed tablet expansion and, of course, whether the market will manage to offset the pressure of low-cost entry-level products. Either way, as IDC puts it, "the next 6 months should be really interesting."
